Fire: danger and mitigation
A preproposal was developed to assess the needs, opportunity, and costs for fire mitigation through thinning, as a joint proposal of NAU (later NULES), Yale University, and DePaul University.
With support of the Chopivsky Family Foundation, it was first necessary to determine how accurate the perceived fire danger was in the CEZ through objective analysis of the CEZ forest inventory. Then, it was necessary to determine objectively if active management could reduce the fire danger markedly. A joint analysis of the fire hazard and opportunities for mitigation were done by a collaboration of scientists from the Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences using Ukrainian Forest Service data and a landscape model.
The model assessed a large part of the CEZ and concluded that the fire danger was very high, that it would subside over time, and that active thinning of the crowded forests could reduce the fire danger. Based on the study of McCarter et al., a budget was proposed for mitigating the fire danger.
worst case scenario of wildfire, smoke impacts health
A team of scientists from the Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences developed a model and used it to analyze the worst case scenario of a catastrophic fire in the CEZ. The methodology was developed and critiqued.
It was then analyzed preliminarily and presented at scientific meetings further input:
October 6-8, 2009. Wildfires and human security. Fire management on terrain contaminated by radioactivity, unexploded ordnance (UXO), and land mines. Kyiv & Chornobyl, Ukraine.
August, 2010: XXIII World Congress,Pentennial World Meeting of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations, Seoul, South Korea.
December, 2010: A review draft was developed. Names of knowledgeable scientists capable of reviewing the study were obtained from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and similar sources abroad. From this list, letters were sent to selected scientists, enclosing a copy of draft paper.
The following scientists wrote reviews, as shown below. The authors responded to the reviews as also shown and modified the study as described.
Anders Møller, Laboratoire Ecologie, Systematique et Evolution UMR 8079 CNRS-Université Paris-Sud XI-AgroParisTech Batiment 362 Université Paris-Sud XIF-91405 Orsay Cedex. See the email from French scientists.
Lynn Anspaugh, P.O. Box 777777, Henderson, NV 89077-7777; (702) 616-0914. See the email correspondence.
Dr. Albert Lee, Director, Nuclear Studies and Analysis,Office of Chief Engineer, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, 2251 Speakman Drive, Mississauga, Ontario L5K 1B2, Canada. See the letter of review from Dr. Lee of AECL
Dr. Akira Osawa, Division of Forest and Biomaterials Sciences,Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. See the cover letter from Dr. Osawa, review comments from Dr. Osawa, and a short CV from March 2011.
Dr. Jerome S. Puskin, Director, Center for Science and Technology, Radiation Protection Division, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. 20460. See the cover letter from Dr. Pushkin, review comments from Dr. Puskin, a short CV from March 2011, graphics from Dr. Puskin, and an EPA letter from March 2011.
Dr. Andrew Razdayvodin and Associates. Dr. Razdayvodin is Head of the Department of Radioactive Ecology of Forest, Russian Research Institute for Silviculture and Mechanization of Forestry (VNIILM)., Russia, 141202, Moscow region, Pushkino, Institutskaya st., 15, VNIILM. See the email review from Dr. Razdayvodin and others.
The authors studied the reviews, made revisions as they felt appropriate, and explained their revisions relative to the specific reviewer comments. These comments are found here. The final paper was accepted and published in Earth Bioresources and Quality of Life.
Hohl, Aaron, Andrew Niccolai, Chad Oliver, Dmytro Melnychuk, Sergiy Zibtsev, Johann Georg Goldammer, Volodymyr Gulidov. 2011. The Human Health Effects of Radioactive Smoke from a Catastrophic Wildfire in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone: A Worst Case Scenario. Earth Bioresources and Quality of Life. Vol. 1, pg. 1.
A consideration of lessons learned was presented at the meeting: October 6-8, 2009. Wildfires and human security. Fire management on terrain contaminated by radioactivity, unexploded ordnance (UXO), and land mines. Kyiv & Chornobyl, Ukraine.